BBL Tip Sheet Week 5

The Early Crow uses expert knowledge, game analysis and years' of tipping experience to provide you with top BBL picks. 

The Early Crows Big Bash League Top Tips – Week 5

Matches Tips
Hobart Hurricanes vs Sydney Thunder Thunder @ $1.80
Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Sixers Sixers @ $2.37

 

Advertisements

SPORTS PREVIEWS AND TIPS

A-LEAGUE – WEEK 13

Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix

Date: 31/12
Time: 7pm Venue: Central Coast Stadium

History: Played 25; Mariners 11, Phoenix 8, Draw 6.

Match Stats: 

  • The Phoenix are undefeated in their last six matches against the Mariners, including three victories.
  • The Phoenix are without a win in their last six away matches.
  • The Mariners have picked up just two points in their last 11 matches this season.

Betting Trends: There has been no support for the Mariners in this one with all the money coming in on a draw or a Phoenix victory with double the money favouring the New Zealanders to pick up the win.

Final Thoughts: The Mariners defence has been in shambles all season and they have conceded over 30 goals in the opening 12 rounds. They are an inexperienced team and the Phoenix will be desperate to end their year in style with a victory to hold onto their spot in the top 6. They will take the three points.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Phoenix @ $2.38

Melbourne City vs Sydney FC

Date: 2/1 Time: 7.30pm
Venue: AAAMI Park

History: Played 16; City 5, Sydney 4, Draw 7.

Match Stats:

  • Sydney FC has the most clean sheets (6) of all A-league clubs this season.
  • City has won their last three matches on home soil.
  • Sydney FC hasn’t won in their last three away matches.

Betting Trends: Punters are split with who will win this team with even money coming in for both sides. There has also been a lot of support for the match to finish in a draw.

Final Thoughts: The Sky Blues were able to pick up a big win last week, however it was against the Mariners who sit on the bottom of the table. Meanwhile City’s four match winning streak was brought to an end. Aaron Mooy will bounce back from a disappointing performance and lead his side to victory.

The Early Crows Top Tip: City @ $2.25

NFL – WEEK 17

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Date: 4/1 Time: 5am
Venue: NRG Stadium

History: Played 27; Texans 16, Jaguars 11.

Match Stats:

  • The Texans have won the last three meetings between these two sides.
  • The Texans are onto their fourth quarterback this year with former Cowboys back up Brandon Weeden.
  • If the Texans pick up a victory they will clinch their division and a play off spot.

Betting Trends: Double the money has came in on the home side to win with punters also favouring them to clear the line.

Final Thoughts: Brandon Weeden looked solid last week and was able to lead his offence to three touchdowns throughout the match. He will need to repeat that effort to put points on the board. However, the Texans will win this match on the back of their defence.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Texans

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Date: 4/1 Time: 5am
Venue:  Sun Life Stadium

History: Played 100; Dolphins 52, Patriots 48.

Match Stats:

  • The Patriots have won 9 of the last 11 matches between these two sides.
  • The Dolphins have lost their last three matches.
  • The Patriots have lost two matches in overtime this season.

Betting Trends: All the money has been on the Patriots to bounce back from their overtime loss last week to the Jets. The Dolphins have received no support with the Patriots also favoured to clear the line.

Final Thoughts: The Patriots were out of sorts last week but it was a loss that needed to happen for the side to regroup before the playoffs. Tom Brady is a fighter and always bounces back strong after a loss. He will lead his side to a massive victory against the Dolphins.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Patriots

CRICKET

Hobart Hurricanes vs Sydney Thunder

Date: 1/16
Time: 7.10pm

Venue: Blundstone Arena

History: Played 4; Hurricanes 4, Thunder 0.

Match Stats:

  • The Thunder is the only remaining undefeated team in the Big Bash.
  • The Hobart Hurricanes are in second position with two wins and a loss.
  • The Thunder’s Andre Russell has been the form player of the competition with both bat and ball.

Betting Trends: The Hurricanes started as outsiders but after their big win against the Brisbane Heat they have received triple the money as their odds have shortened.

Final Thoughts: The Thunder has started the season superbly and is the only undefeated team left in the competition. They are a very balanced team with a lot of strong bowlers and batters. Their bowlers will need to be at their best as they come up against the Hurricanes strong batting line up and if they grab a few early wickets they will win this one.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Thunder @ $1.76

Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Sixers

Date: 31/12
Time: 7.10pm
Venue: Adelaide Oval

History: Played 5; Sixers 3, Strikers 2.

Match Stats:

  • The Sixers and Strikers are both have both registered two wins this season.
  • The Strikers have suffered just the one loss this year.
  • The Sixers have scored the most runs with 621 this BBL year, however they have played one more game than every other team.

Betting Trends: Triple the money has been on the home side to return to winning ways after a disappointing loss to the Thunder in their last start. Their odds have shorted to $1.60 with Brad Haddin the favourite amongst Punters to top score.

Final Thoughts: The Strikers were dismantled by the Thunder in their last match as they were able to pick up a lot of early wickets, which stopped the side from putting a big score on the board. Meanwhile the Sixers are in a position where this is a must win for them and they offer the better value.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Sydney Sixers @ $2.35

Australia vs West Indies

Date: 3/1/16
Time: 10pm Venue: Sydney Cricket Ground

History: Played 115; Australia 57, West Indies 32, Drawn 25.

Match Stats:

  • Australia have won 13 of the last 16 matches against the West Indies with the other 3 ending in a draw.
  • Australia will play two spinners in the third test and rest their fast bowlers.
  • The West Indies have lost their last six test matches.

Betting Trends: The money has continued to flow in on Australia despite their decision to rest their fast bowlers. Usman Khawaja has been the favourite to top score in the third test.

Final Thoughts: Australia will be looking to complete the sweep of the West Indies and with the odds remaining too short for value the Early Crow believes sticking with top run scorer is the best option and you can’t go past the Australian captain Steve Smith.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Top Australian Batsman – Steve Smith @ $3.60

Saturday – Racing Preview and Tips

ASCOT

Ascot Race 6- KAI CONSTRUCTIONS LA TRICE CLASSIC 1800m

Time: 3:45pm

A lot of runners here coming from the Listed Starstruck Classic on the 19th of January. Ideal Image was the hard luck story in that race after being baulked for a run for the majority of the straight. Once clear though, the 4-year-old mare hit the line strongly to finish third and should be well found in betting once again. Without a win over 1400m the distance here might be a query.

With a win over 2000m in the Belmont Oaks back in July, stable mate Cosmic Storm on the other hand should eat up the 1800m. The lightly raced mare has been outstanding this preparation despite doing a lot wrong in some of her races. Drawn to sit more forward and with the stable’s gun jockey, she will take a lot of beating if she behaves herself.

Vampi Lass won this race last year and has been racing as if she is looking for more ground. At her best she can win this, but on current form she looks a place hope at best.

Starstruck winner Tarquinn Shadow is the other interesting runner in the field. A sublime ride by Lucy Warwick saw her salute at big odds last start, and a repeat performance from both jockey and horse puts her well in contention.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Cosmic Storm @ $2.25

Race 8- G1X.COM.AU PERTH CUP 2400m

Time: 5:05pm

Delicacy is the superstar runner in the field and is absolutely flying at the moment. At weight for age conditions she brains this field, but instead she finds the top weight of 59kgs which is a lot to carry over this trip. Leave out at your own peril, but at the short odds she’s sure to have people looking elsewhere.  

The runner looking most likely to cause an upset in the race is Delicacy’s stable mate Neverland. Jockey William Pike’s decision to stay on the mare rather than Delicacy is a huge indication of which runner he thinks is going the better. Well beaten as a short priced favourite last start, she should be flying home again here.

Bedamijo should lead here and get an easy time of it in front. The 8-year-old with 50 career starts has been in outstanding of late over staying trips and defeated Neverland last time out. She has never run this trip, but with some cheap sectionals early, there’s every chance she can run a cheeky race at odds.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Delicacy @ $2.35

MOONEE VALLEY

Race 5- Alliance Broking Services VOBIS Gold Carat 1200m

Time: 4:05pm

Antelucan is a highly talented filly who has been placed twice previously at stakes level. She is at her best when up on the pace, so will need a good ride from Ben Melham from barrier one. If she runs up to her ability it’s hard to see many troubling her here.

The Big Dance impressively won her debut race back in March, and has only had one other run since when she was a well beaten fourth at Moonee Valley. Without a public trial and off the back of a big spell, watch the market for an indication of how the filly is travelling.

Clint McDonald trained Love Days looks a very impressive type and has won in dominant fashion in both of her starts to date. This is her strongest test so far, however everything indicates she up easily up to this class. The only question mark is barrier 11, which in what looks a high speed race could be tricky.

The Early Crows Top Tip: Antelucan @ $6.50

Wednesday Racing Tip Sheet

The Early Crows Racing Top Tips – 23/12/15. 

CANTERBURY

Race Tip
Canterbury R3 – Schwepps Mdn Plate Tsarita @ $3.10
Canterbury R6 – More Than Ready Rye @ $3.30
Canterbury R7 – More than Winning I'll Take The Jag @ $5.50

SANDOWN

Race Tip
Sandown R1 – The Grand Hotel Olivetti @ $5.50
Sandown R3 – Thebigscreencompany.com Miss Cooper @ $4.00
Sandown R4 – Polytrack Recalcitrata @ $4.00

 

Destined For Greatness, The Three Horses Ready To Star In 2016

With literally thousands of horses currently in training around Australia, the next Black Caviar, Makybe Diva or even Winx is standing in a stall waiting to be uncovered.

While it's almost impossible to highlight just a few, we've found three horses who we think everyone should be watching in 2016.

Each have a unique story of their own, but all have one thing in common; they are all superstars in the making.

Delicacy

It might seem strange that a horse we nominated as one of the stars of 2015 a reigning Horse of the Year, and at the time of writing unbackable favourite in the Perth Cup is also a horse to watch in 2016. But for most punters, West Australian based mare Delicacy is still a relative unknown.

Sweeping all before her in Perth and Adelaide during her three-year-old campaign, Delicacy has won a staggering eight stakes races in her eighteen career starts including two Derbies and two Oaks.

It seems inevitable that trainer Grant Williams will eventually bring Delicacy to the east coast in pursuit of greater glory. With any campaign will come a weight of expectation and comparison to WA's best such as the great Northerly, but it's almost impossible to imagine she wouldn't be up to the mark anywhere in Australia.

Caulfield and Flemington are crying out for another great Australian stayer, and racing fans on the east coast can't wait to see the best from the west.

Secret Agenda

Bursting onto the scene with a three-and-a-half length debut win in 2014, Secret Agenda was quickly earmarked as one of Mick Price's Blue Diamond chances.

While injury put an end to any hope of winning Melbourne's premier two-year-old race, the now three-year-old bounced back in style over the recent Spring Carnival.

Returning with an easy kill midweek at Sandown, the daughter of Not a Single Doubt then finished second in both the Champagne Stakes and Thoroughbred Club Stakes at Group 3 level.

Finding a soft track on Oaks Day, she finally broke through for the all important first stakes victory in the Gucci Stakes over 1100m down the straight. The almost three-length victory and her explosive turn of foot wrote Secret Agenda into black books all around the country.

Improving with every start and still only lightly raced, Secret Agenda could potentially stamp herself as the premier three-year-old sprinter come the autumn.

Storm the Stars

It seems like an almost annual event now, the mass exodus of promising staying types from the Northern Hemisphere coming down under to chase the riches of Australian prize money.  

With only 11 stars to his name, the Sheikh Juma bin Dalmook Al Maktoum owned three-year-old Storm the Stars comes to Australia as one of the best-credentialed horses in the UK.

While many owners prefer to bring their charges on hit-and-run missions to Melbourne's Cups Carnivals, the Sheikh instead has learnt from the failures  of many of his compatriots and has moved his colt into the best stable in Australia full time.

And with a little Chris Waller polish, it's hard to see Storm the Stars do anything but win Group 1 races. The colt has placed in three Group 1 racing including the English and Irish Derbies and has won a Group 2 race over 2400m. More importantly, he has form around Bondi Beach who impressed during the Spring Carnival before coming unstuck in the bizarreness that was the Melbourne Cup.

The Cup is one of the few trophies that still eludes Waller but with Storm the Stars that might change in 2016.

Do you have a horse hidden in your black book who is going to burst onto the scene in 2016? Let us know in the comments below so you can officially tell everyone ‘you told them so' when they cross the line for Group 1 glory.