MAN VS BOOKIE

Weekly Racing Betting Wrap 

Bookies bounce back under stormy skies at Rosehill

Group racing returned to Rosehill on Saturday with the running of two key Golden Slipper trials for two-year-olds, and the Expressway Stakes over 1200m. The returning Our Boy Malachi defied a huge oncourse drift in the feature sprint to help the bookies finally get a small win over punters who have had the best of the first month of the year.

Here's a wrap of the betting action at Palmerbet from all the big races over the weekend.

Rosehill

Race 3:  The Canonbury Stakes for two-year-old colts and geldings proved to be an intriguing betting race with four runners with a strarting price (SP) under $5. In what turned out to be one of the biggest betting races of the day, there was plenty of money and big bets spread across the main chances. Early favourite Defcon drifted from $2 to $4, while the smart money came in a big way for Tessera who opened at $5 before a flood of bets including a $5,000 bet at $4.60, and $10,000 at $4.40 brought him into $4 at the jump. There were also huge bets of $10,000 and $5,000 on race favourite Star of Monsoon, and big bets late for Guard of Honour.

Result: Tessera’s one-and-a-half length win was an early win for the punters who were all over the colt, however the money for Star of Monsoon and Guard of Honour who finished down the track helped minimise the loss.

 

Race 4: Punters were only interest in one runner in the Widden Stakes for the two-year-old girls, with a truckload of money coming for the Gai Waterhouse runner So Serene. The filly was crunched from $4.40 into $3.20, including a bet of $5,000 and two $2,000 bets. Despite drifting from $4 to $4.80, there were plenty of smaller bets on first-starter and impressive trialist Honesty Prevails, who was kept firm in the market.

Result: With the well supported favourite finishing an almost six lengths away eighth, this was a win for the bookies, however the punters did put plenty on the well supported winner.  

 

Race 7: Despite being the best credentialed runner in the field, punters found Our Boy Malachi’s opening price far too short given question marks over the gelding’s return from injury. Big bets of $5,000 and $2,000 weren’t enough to stop a huge drift from $1.90 out to $3.80 at the jump. Punters were very interested in Tiger Tees with a flood of money coming in late to crunch the price from $7 into $5.50. High-class galloper Solicit was also well supported with big best of $3,000 and $2,000.

Result: With the late money coming for Tiger Tees this offest the big bets received for winner Our Boy Malachi, we finished the race marginally on the right side of the ledger as the storm clouds rolled in.

Advertisements

Top 3 Most Shocking Moments

#1 Serena Williams Drops Australian Open Final    

The world number one was an overwhelming favourite to take her 7th Australian Open title, but 46 unforced errors helped Angelique Kerber to her first grand slam championship.

Williams had decimated her opponents in the tournament so far but seemed off her game on Saturday night.

Spraying shots wide in the first set and missing almost half of her shots from the net.

Kerber had to save a match point in a first round match of the tournament, and she again had to prove her mental toughness against the Queen of Rod Laver.

She becomes the first German since Steffi Graff to win the Australian Open title.

See match point HERE.

#2 Felipe Luis’ “Vicious” tackle on Messi

There was outrage at the weekend when Lionel Messi drew an ugly knee-high challenge during Barcelona’s match against Atlético Madrid.

Barca’ coach, Louis Enrique was livid, and rightly so. The Atlético defender earned a straight red for his efforts on the World Player of the Year.

Barcelona won the match 2-1, almost locking up the La Liga title.

Watch the replay HERE.     

#3 Australia Swept in the T20 International Series

Worrying signs for Boof Lehman’s men as they approach the World T20 in India this March.

Redemption was the order of the weekend, but the Indians had other ideas. In a display of some of the most aggressive and convincing short form cricket we’ve seen, Virat Kohli almost single-handedly bludgeoned Australia into submission.

Stand-in captain Shane Watson returned to the centurion’s club with 127, one over very few pluses Australia could take away.

Even with Watto’s tonne – the second fastest in T20 history – Australia’s score of 197 proved meagre as India wrapped up a series whitewash on the last ball.

Last night’s match highlights HERE.

Super Bowl 50 Preview

Super Bowl 50 is largely the tale of two quarterbacks. On one side is a legend of the sport, who is a previous Super Bowl winner, league MVP and a certainty to be inducted into the Football Hall of Fame. On the other is one of the most exciting young players in the league, who has lit up stadiums throughout the season with his scintillating play.

But it is not only two former number one draft picks facing off in San Francisco. This year’s Super Bowl also sees the regular season’s best NFC team face the best AFC team, and the best offense in the league face the best defence in the league. So who will come out victorious and be crowned Super Bowl Champions?

We take a look over both the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers to see which great quarterback will be lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

DENVER BRONCOS

Regular Season: 12-4 (AFC #1 seed, 1st AFC West)
Road to Super Bowl: won 23-16 v Steelers, won 20-18 v Patriots

While they may not have won as many matches as the Panthers, the Broncos 12-4 regular season is arguably almost as impressive. From the much tougher AFC West, Denver finished one game ahead of the highly talented Kansas City and clinched the number one seed in the AFC. The Broncos opened their playoff campaign with an unconvincing win against the injury-riddled Steelers, before claiming a narrow two-point victory over the much more fancied New England Patriots.

Offense

Points per game: 22.2 (19th in NFL)
Yards per game: 355.5 (16th in NFL)
Passing yards per game: 248.1 (14th in NFL)
Rushing yards per game: 107.4 (17th in NFL)

For a side with the legendary quarterback Peyton Manning, the Broncos have hardly been an offensive juggernaut, especially through the air. With only a 47.7% red zone conversion rate and 13 reception touchdowns, the Broncos are one of the worst units in the league inside the 20.

But it’s not all bad news, especially when it comes to Denver’s rushing game. While overall their stats on the ground might not look all that impressive, they are arguably the form running unit in the league. Since week eight, the Broncos have the league’s best rushing yards per carry, had the second most runs over 15 yards, and the third most yards after first contact. Add to that three matches with more than 170 yards in the past two months and you’ve got a team who may surprise on the ground.

A win in the Super Bowl will be Manning’s 200th of his career, and his eighth in the San Francisco Bay area where he seems to revel in the warmer climates and has a 7-1 record.

Defence

Points per game: 18.5 (4TH in NFL)
Yards per game: 283.1 (1st in NFL)
Passing yards per game: 199.6 (1st in NFL)
Rushing yards per game: 83.6 (3rd in NFL)

Stats tell the tale of everything you need to know about the Broncos defence; they are simply the best in the league. The least yards per game, least passing yards per game, and 4th least points per game are sobering reading for any offensive coordinator.

But it is in key areas that the Broncos might just have an important edge against the run happy Panthers lead by the mercurial Cam Newton. The Broncos have not allowed a quarterback rushing touchdown all season, and know how to bring serious pressure with the third best blitzing defence in the league.

Even getting into a scoring position can be difficult against the Broncos, having only let 37 drives inside their red zone all season, the lowest number in the NFL.

Key to victory

In last weekend’s Conference Championship the Broncos’ hit Patriot’s quarterback Tom Brady 17 times. Bringing the same heat against the multi-dimensional Cam Newton may be more of a risk. But given he has not been hit more than six times in a match this year, asserting early defensive dominance may win the Broncos the Super Bowl.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Regular Season: 15-1 (NFC #1 seed, 1st NFC South)
Road to Super Bowl: won 31-24 v Seahawks, won 49-15 v Cardinals

The Carolina Panthers ended the regular season as the best team in the NFL, and little we have seen since has suggested that has changed. Winning the NFC South by an amazing 9 games, the Panthers have only lost once during the season when they were defeated by divisional rivals Atlanta in a meaningless week 16 matchup.

With home field advantage guaranteed throughout the Playoffs, the Panthers hosted and defeated the Seattle Seahawks, before annihilating the Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC and book their ticket to Levi Stadium.

Offense

Points per game: 31.2 (1st in NFL)
Yards per game: 366.9 (11th in NFL)
Passing yards per game: 224.3 (24th in NFL)
Rushing yards per game: 142.6 (2nd in NFL)

For a team with the league's in-form quarterback and the best offense, it may come as a surprise that it is on the ground where they get things done. The double act of running back Jonathan Stewart and QB Cam Newton are not only the 2nd best rushing yards per carry in the NFL, but have rushed for more than 100 yards in the past 31 matches straight.

But this should really come as no surprise given the Panthers rushed more often than any other team in the league on an amazing 46.2% of plays. Cam Newton’s 103 runs was almost double that of the next nearest QB. Bronco fans should be especially nervous if the Panthers reach the red zone. Newton posted 34 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line during the season including scoring 10 times from 29 red zone rushes.

Defence

Points per game: 19.2 (6TH in NFL)
Yards per game: 322.9 (6th in NFL)
Passing yards per game: 234.5 (11th in NFL)
Rushing yards per game: 88.4 (4th in NFL)

While the Panthers’ offense gets most of the headlines, on the other side of the ball they are equally as impressive. With the 6th best defence overall in the NFL on yards and points per game, the Panthers are also a standout unit with turnovers and inside the red zone.

Throughout the season, the Panthers forced turnovers on 19.4% of drives, the best in the league. The Panthers also only allowed opposition offenses into the red zone on 52.5% of drives (10th best in the NFL), while only conceded points on 26.5% of drives, the lowest in the league.

Key to victory

It seems obvious, but the success of the Panthers rests squarely on the shoulders of their quarterback Cam Newton. If he and the Panthers can assert their dominance on the ground it is hard to see anything other than a Carolina win. However if Denver can contain the ground game, it will be up to Newton to show he can pass his was to victory, something we are yet to see.

The Early Crow's Top Tip: Denver Broncos + 5.5 @ $1.94

PUNTER OF THE WEEK

Racing Multi

$100 into $12,375

Leg Race Horse Price
1 Rosehill Race 1 Start Wondering $1.50
2 Rosehill Race 3 Tessera $5.00
3 Rosehill Race 4 Honesty Prevails $5.00
4 Rosehill Race 7 Our Boy Malachi $3.30

Ever have one of those days? Where everything goes your way? That happened to our Punter of the Week, who turned $100 into more than $12,000 with a 4-leg racing multi.

The short priced favourite Start Wondering ($1.50) got this punters multi off to a good start with an easy win in the first at Rosehill. 

It was then Tessera who made it two wins from two when he fought off the challenge of Defcon to take out the Group 3 $150,000 Canonbury Stakes (1100m). 

Honesty Prevails win surprised a few – but not this punter who had the filly as his third leg in Rosehill Race 4. She thumped a field of fillies in a time far superior to the boys in the Canonbury Stakes 35 minutes earlier. 

His final leg was on Our Boy Malachi, who first had to defy an 11th-hour call on whether he would line up in the Expressway Stakes — and then a savage betting drift — before scoring an emotional win and landing this punter a massive win!
 

BIG BETS – WINNERS AND LOSERS

Race Horse Bet Result
Flemington Race 1 No.6 Supido $5,000 @$2.20 WON
Flemington Race 2 No.1 Lonrockstar $2,000 @$4.60 LOST
Flemington Race 6  No. 4 Pattern $4,000 @ $3.10 LOST
Flemington Race 7 No. 8 Headwater  $3,000 @ $6.00 WON
Flemington Race 8 No. 9 Camdus $20,000 @ $3.00 LOST
Rosehill Race 1 No 4 Start Wondering $20,000 @ $1.50 WON
Rosehill Race 3 No. 5 Defcon $4,000 @ $2.10 LOST
Rosehill Race 3 No. 1 Tessera $5,000 @ $4.60 WON
Rosehill Race 7 No. 4 Our Boy Malachi $5,000 @ $3.00 WON