THURSDAY RACING TIP SHEET

The Early Crows Racing Top Tips – 18/5/2017

Pakenham

Race Tip Tip 2
Pakenham Race 3 RED VELEVT SWING JOCASTA
Pakenham Race 5 CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL JOCASTA
Pakenham Race 7 JOCASTA JOCASTA

Townsville

Race Tip
Townsville Race 2 CANON KING
Townsville Race 4 PERFECT KNOWLEDGE
Townsville Race 7 WHITEHOUSE AFFAIR

Hawkesbury

Race Tip
Hawkesbury Race 1 BELLE TOURNURE
Hawkesbury Race 6 POET’S ADVOCATE
Hawkesbury Race 8 COLOUR OF MONEY

Hawkesbury

Race Tip
Hawkesbury Race 1 BELLE TOURNURE
Hawkesbury Race 6 POET’S ADVOCATE
Hawkesbury Race 8 COLOUR OF MONEY
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AFL Preview – Round 9

Geelong Cats v Western Bulldogs

7.50pm (AEST), Friday, May 19 @ Simonds Stadium

Teams: Scott Selwood and Lachie Henderson are likely to come back into the Geelong line-up. Dale Morris, Travis Cloke and Jordan Roughead are in the frame to return from injury for Western Bulldogs.

History: The Cats have won 100 games to the Bulldogs’ 55, with 2 drawn. The Cats would at Etihad and Simonds Stadium last year by comfortable margins.

Form: The 5-3 Cats have slipped to fifth on the ladder after losing three straight games to the Magpies, Suns and Bombers. The Bulldogs are also 5-3 and have dropped to eighth, losing narrowly to the Giants and Eagles either side of a tight win over the Tigers.

Stats: The Cats have won their last 10 – and 14 of the last 15 – against the Bulldogs. Eight of the Cats’ last 10 wins over the Bulldogs have been by 20+ points. The Bulldogs have not won at Simonds Stadium since 2003. Four of the Bulldogs’ last 5 games were decided by 8 points or less. The Cats have won 11 of their last 12 at Simonds Stadium. The Bulldogs are 0-3 in 2017 away from the main Melbourne city grounds.

Final Thoughts: Geelong started 2017 on fire, but they’ve hit the skids with three straight losses to teams they would’ve expected to clean up comfortably. So how do they respond against a genuine contender? The Bulldogs have been locked in a succession of tight dog-fights, and while they are battle-hardened, that has to take its toll. Getting back to Simonds Stadium – where they have a magnificent record – may be just the tonic for the desperate Cats.

Crow’s Tip: Geelong Cats +1.5 @ $1.90

St Kilda Saints v Sydney Swans

1.45pm (AEST), Saturday, May 20 @ Etihad Stadium

Teams: Paddy McCartin is beating the door down for a recall via his VFL form, while Shane Savage and Daniel McKenzie are in line to replace injured defender Jimmy Webster. Kurt Tippett and Gary Rohan are back in the mix after strong injury returns in the NEAFL.

History: The Swans have won 133 games to the Saints’ 77, with 3 drawn. The Swans won by 70 points in Round 21 last season.

Form: The 5-3 Saints have risen to sixth on the back of three consecutive wins over the Hawks, Giants and Blues. The 2-6 Swans have climbed up to 15th after winning their last two against the Lions and Kangaroos.

Stats: The Swans have won their last 6 against the Saints, including the last 4 by 59 points or more. The Saints have won just 3 of their last 15 against the Swans in Sydney. The Saints are 13-7 at Etihad Stadium since the start of last season (4-2 in 2017). The Swans are 10-6 away from Sydney since the start of 2016 (1-3 this year).

Final Thoughts: The Saints have really got on a roll and seem to be riding the confidence of their momentum wins over the Hawks and Giants. It wasn’t their best effort against the Blues last week, however, and they need to find a way to deal with increased expectations. The Swans come into this clash with some belated momentum, with their win over North a potential platform to make a mid-season surge. This shapes as possibly the closest match of the round to call.

Crow’s Tip: St Kilda 1-24 @ $3.50

GWS Giants v Richmond Tigers

4.35pm (AEST), Saturday, May 20 @ Spotless Stadium

Teams: Toby Greene will be back from suspension for the Giants. Dion Prestia is expected to line up for the Tigers, while Anthony Miles, Sam Lloyd and Ben Lennon and pushing for a promotion.

History: The Tigers have won 5 games to the Giants’ 1, but GWS won their most recent clash – in Round 19 last year – by 88 points.

Form: The 6-2 Giants are in a share of the competition lead, bouncing back from their loss to St Kilda with a narrow win over Collingwood. The 5-3 Tigers have lost their last three games to slide down to seventh spot.

Stats: The Tigers are 3-0 against the Giants at Spotless Stadium. The Giants are 8-3 at Spotless Stadium since the start of 2016 (2-0 this season). The Tigers are 2-6 away from Melbourne since the start of last season (1-1 in 2017).

Final Thoughts: Like the Cats, the Tigers have got the wobbles in a major way after a superb 5-0 start. They desperately need to halt their slide. Unfortunately, their next assignment is against the formidable Giants at Spotless – a team that will be eager to improve on a narrow escape against the lowly Magpies. GWS should be far too strong at home, with doubts still surrounding Richmond’s ability to cut it against the best teams.

Crow’s Tip: GWS Giants -25.5 @ $1.90

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows

7.25pm (AEST), Saturday, May 20 @ Gabba

Teams: Brisbane are hopeful of having skipper Dayne Beams back on deck this weekend, but Tom Rockliff is in doubt after dislocating his should in Round 8. Jake Lever and Riley Knight should be back for Adelaide, while Scott Thompson could make his first appearance of 2017.

History: The Lions and Crows have won 15 games each in their 30-game rivalry; the Crows won by 138 points in Round 20 last season.

Form: The 1-7 Lions are dead last, with their defeat to the Hawks their seventh in a row. The 6-2 Crows remain on top of the ladder despite losing their last two heavily to the Kangaroos and Demons.

Stats: Adelaide hold a 9-8 advantage over Brisbane as the away team. The Crows are on a 5-match winning streak against the Lions and have won 11 of the last 15. Five of the teams’ last 10 encounters were decided by 12 points or less, but 3 of the Crows’ last 4 wins were by 87+ points. The Lions are 2-12 at home since the start of 2016 (0-3 this year). The Crows are 8-6 away from Adelaide Oval since the start of last season (2-1 in 2017).

Final Thoughts: Brisbane are far behind the rest of the AFL right now it’s not funny, barely competing at all and giving the previously struggling Swans and Hawks a big leg-up. Adelaide will be bitterly disappointed they let their 6-0 start turn into two straight losses, but a trip to the Gabba should get them back on track. The Crows are the top attacking outfit in the premiership and the Lions are the worst defensively, so this could get ugly.

Crow’s Tip: Adelaide Crows 60+ @ $2.40

Collingwood Magpies v Hawthorn Hawks

7.25pm (AEST), Saturday, May 20 @ MCG

Teams: Adam Treolar is likely to return for Collingwood, while Travis Varcoe is also a possible inclusion; Mason Cox shapes as the replacement for the injured Ben Reid. Cyril Rioli, Ben Stratton and James Frawley all succumbed to medium-term injuries during last week’s win, while Jack Fitzpatrick is likely out with concussion.

History: Collingwood have won 96 games to Hawthorn’s 65, but the Hawks won by 1 point in Round 23 last season.

Form: The 2-6 Magpies are now in 17th, losing their last two to the Blues and Giants. The 3-5 Hawks have won three of their last four – against the Eagles, Demons and Lions, with a bad loss to the Saints in between – to move up to 14th.

Stats: The Hawks are on a 9-game winning streak against the Magpies, and have won 14 of the last 17 between the clubs. Six of the Hawks’ last 8 wins over the Magpies were by 29+ points. Collingwood are 7-12 at the MCG since the start of 2016 (1-4 this year). Hawthorn are 9-8 at the MCG since the start of last season (2-3 in 2017).

Final Thoughts: The Magpies were gutsy last week, unlucky to go down to the Giants – they are better than their record or ladder position suggests, but such is the evenness of the 2017 AFL premiership. The Hawks have turned things around in recent weeks to incredibly sit just a win away from the top eight, but a shocking injury toll from their win over the Lions could be a telling factor this Saturday. Nevertheless, the experienced Hawks are an enticing option with a two-goal start.

Crow’s Tip: Hawthorn Hawks +13.5 @ $1.90

Essendon Bombers v West Coast Eagles

1.10pm (AEST), Sunday, May 21 @ Etihad Stadium

Teams: Tom Bellchambers, Craig Bird and Craig McNiece are pushing for inclusion in what should be a relatively settled Bombers line-up. Drew Petrie could return for the Eagles, who are also expecting Jamie Cripps back.

History: Essendon have won 27 games to West Coast’s 23, but the Eagles won by 78 points last season.

Form: The 4-4 Bombers are in 11th, breaking a two-game losing streak by beating the Cats last week. The 6-2 Eagles are in a share of the premiership lead (third on percentages) thanks to three straight wins over the Dockers, Power and Bulldogs.

Stats: The Bombers have an impressive 17-6 advantage over the Eagles at home. The Bombers have won 3 of their last 4 against the Eagles at Etihad Stadium, but the Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 overall. The Bombers have won only 1 of their last 15 games at Etihad Stadium. The Eagles are 7-7 away from Perth since the start of 2016 (2-2 this season).

Final Thoughts: While the rest of the heavyweights have stumbled in recent weeks, the Eagles have surged after copping plenty of criticism in the early rounds. They’ve beaten some very handy sides in their past three outings – but doubts remain over their ability to get the job done in Melbourne. The Bombers claimed a big scalp of their own last week to stay in touch with the top eight, but the Eagles can parlay their momentum into overcoming the mental hurdle of travelling to Victoria and chalk up a valuable victory.

Crow’s Tip: West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $2.20

Melbourne Demons v North Melbourne Kangaroos

3.20pm (AEST), Sunday, May 21 @ MCG

Teams: Jesse Hogan is out indefinitely after his cancer diagnosis, while Jayden Hunt suffered a concussion last week and is in doubt. Andrew Swallow could make a return to the Kangaroos’ line-up after last week’s midfield mismatch against the Swans, while Declan Mountford and Mitch Hibberd are also options.

History: The Demons have won 83 games to the Kangaroos’ 74, with 1 drawn. North won by 5 points in their only clash last season.

Form: The 4-4 Demons remain in 10th despite their bounce-back win over Adelaide to the tune of 41 points last week. The 2-6 Kangaroos are in 16th, following up their two-game winning run with a loss to the Swans in Round 8.

Stats: The Kangaroos are on a 15-match winning streak against the Demons. Six of North’s last 7 wins over the Demons were by 30+ points. The Dees are 8-8 at the MCG since the start of 2016, but only 1-3 this season. The Kangaroos have played only 10 games at the MCG in the past four seasons, winning 6 and losing 4.

Final Thoughts: The Demons grabbed a super-impressive win over the competition leaders last week, but they need to string some wins together if they’re to be a genuine top eight contender. The Kangaroos had done well to claw back from an 0-5 start, but they came unstuck against the Swans and rank near the bottom of the AFL for points conceded. Expect the Demons to ride the emotion of Jesse Hogan’s illness news to an authoritative win at the ’G.

Crow’s Tip: Melbourne Demons -12.5 @ $1.90

Fremantle Dockers v Carlton Blues

2.40pm (AWST), Sunday, May 21 @ Domain Stadium

Teams: Stephen Hill and Hayden Ballantyne could be back for Fremantle. Kristian Jacksch, Liam Sumner and Sam Kerridge may come into the frame for Carlton after strong VFL displays last weekend.

History: Fremantle have won 17 games to Carlton’s 13, but the Blues won by 4 points early last season.

Form: The 5-3 Dockers are placed ninth, winning their last two games against the Bombers and Tigers. The 3-5 Blues are in 13th as their loss to the Saints ended a two-game winning run.

Stats: The Dockers boast an 11-8 home record against the Blues. The Blues have won just 5 of their last 20 against the Dockers, but they have won 3 of the last 5 at Domain Stadium. Seven of the teams’ last 11 games were decided by single-figure margins. The Dockers are 6-11 at Domain Stadium since the start of 2016 (3-2 this year). The Blues are 1-6 interstate since the start of last season (0-1 in 2017).

Final Thoughts: The Dockers are in great touch – winning five of their last six – and now sit at the bottom of a six-team logjam tied for fourth spot. They have a big chance this weekend to cement a place in the eight. The Blues turn up every week and are always competitive, but they certainly shape as a bottom-four team and their poor record away from Melbourne will catch up with them here.

Crow’s Tip: Fremantle Dockers -19.5 @ $1.90

NRL Preview – Round 11

Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

Date: 18/5
Time: 7:50pm
Venue: Southern Cross Group Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 37, Sharks 22, Cowboys 15

Key Stats:

  • The Sharks have only won once at home this season
  • The Cowboys have won only 33% of matches at Southern Cross Group Stadium
  • The Sharks play their next 5 matches at home

Betting Trends: Punters have come very strongly for the Sharks, with 65% of bets at the line so far.

Final thoughts: What a cracker to start the weekend! Jonathon Thurston has been named for the Cowboys, which is a huge boost to a side who defied the odds to beat the Bulldogs last week. Michael Morgan was sublime in that game, and should again be able to take much of the load of the great JT. The Sharks have been fantastic this season, except at home where their only win came against the struggling Knights by the narrowest of margins. That has to change if they are to make their mark in 2017, and rising to this challenge could be just what’s needed.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Sharks win @ $1.48

New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons

Date: 19/5
Time: 6:00pm
Venue: FMG Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 25, Warriors 5, Dragons 15

Key Stats:

  • The Warriors are 0-3 at FMG Stadium
  • The Dragons have lost their last 3 matches
  • The Warriors have won their last 3 matches in New Zealand
  1. Trends: The Warriors have been well found early, and currently hold 70% of bets made.

Final thoughts: How the Warriors failed to win last week against the Panthers will go down as the great mystery of the 2017 season. They were very good for the first 40 minutes but completely fell apart in the second stanza. For all their brilliance, there are still some significant cracks in their ability to play out a full match. The Dragons, on the other hand, are one of the most reliable sides in the competition. Their Storm-like consistency has them well placed despite their casualty list in recent weeks. That consistency makes them a bet every time you get a start.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Dragons +6 @ $1.90

Brisbane Broncos v Wests Tigers

Date: 19/5
Time: 7:50pm
Venue: Suncorp Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 25, Broncos 19, Tigers 5

Key Stats:

  • The Broncos have won their last 5 matches
  • The Tigers have won only 40% of matches at Suncorp Stadium
  • The Broncos have won 62% of matches at Suncorp Stadium

Betting Trends: The Broncos are the shortest-priced favourites of the round, with no one interested in the Tigers.

Final thoughts:The Tigers’ recent turnaround in form came unhinged last week against the Rabbitohs where they were well beaten in a match that should have been much closer. With so much talk around the 2018 side and Mitchell Moses, you get the feeling that their focus is everywhere but the footy field. The Broncos are flying at the moment, and are looking like genuine premiership contenders. Their comeback against Manly last Saturday was the sign of the great side, and the inclusions of Roberts and Hunt are massive. It’s a big line, but it’s not beyond them.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Broncos -14.5@ $1.90

Gold Coast Titans v Manly Sea Eagles

Date: 20/5
Time: 5:30pm
Venue: Cbus Super Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 15, Titans 9, Sea Eagles 6

Key Stats:

  • The Titans have won their last 3 matches
  • Manly have won 56% of matches on the Gold Coast
  • The Titans won the last match between these sides 30-10

Betting Trends: Manly have been the biggest go of the week so far, they are already into $1.80 at the line.

Final thoughts: The Titans are well and truly back after their massive come from behind win over the Storm last week. That is now three wins in a row for the home side who continue to improve with each start. Manly looked as though they would blow away the Broncos in the first half of their match, before falling badly in the second half. There has been enough in their last month to know they are still a quality outfit, even without the injured Tommy Turbo. The early value for the away side was snapped up very quickly, which means the Titans are now the bet to take.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Titans win @ $2.00

Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders

Date: 20/5
Time: 7:30pm
Venue: ANZ Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 29, Eels 12, Raiders 17

Key Stats:

  • The Raiders have lost their last 3 matches
  • The Raiders have won 57% of matches at ANZ Stadium
  • The Eels have won 3 of their last 4 matches

Betting Trends: Punters are struggling to split these two, money is even for both sides so far.

Final thoughts: These two could not have been worse in their respective matches last Sunday. The Eels were comprehensively beaten by the Roosters, where they barely looked on the park at times. Their chances this week are significantly dented by the loss of half Corey Norman who is their biggest attacking weapon. The Raiders have been terrible for the last three weeks, with their loss to the Knights the worst of their performances. Opposition teams have managed to neutralise their points of attack and they have struggled to adapt to those changes. On paper they should win, but happy to take the start for the home side.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Eels +4.5 @ $1.90

Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers

Date: 21/5
Time: 2:00pm
Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 30, Knights 18, Panthers 11

Key Stats:

  • The Knights have won 57% of matches at McDonald Jones Stadium
  • The Panthers won the last meeting between these sides 40-0
  • The Panthers have won only 6 times in Newcastle

Betting Trends: There has been some slight interest in the Knights at the massive 10.5 point line.

Final thoughts: Both of these sides snapped long losing streaks last week and will be hoping to continue their run again this weekend. The Knights played the Raiders off the park in notching up their victory, continuing their better run at home. The Panthers were again awful in the first half of their clash against the Warriors but flew home to grab an all-important win. We’ve said it almost every week, but with a double-digit line at home, the plucky Knights are always a bet.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Knights +10.5 @ $1.90

Canterbury Bulldogs v Sydney Roosters

Date: 21/5
Time: 4:00pm
Venue: ANZ Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 38, Bulldogs 21, Roosters 17

Key Stats:

  • The Bulldogs have won 58% of matches at ANZ Stadium
  • The Roosters have won 3 of their last 4 matches
  • The Roosters won the last meeting between these sides 28-24

Betting Trends: It’s one-way traffic for the Roosters here, with 70% of bets written for the away side so far.

Final thoughts: After a mini-slump, the Roosters have played themselves back into form superbly over the last four weeks. Their demolition of the Eels on Sunday show just how dangers they can truly be, with all players firing perfectly in an almost complete performance. The same can’t be said of the Bulldogs who are themselves now in a slump. They should have performed much better against the wounded Cowboys, and won’t find things any easier against the clinical, yet creative Tri-Colours. The bookies have this pretty spot on, so take the favourites to continue their roll.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Roosters -6.5 @ $1.90

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Melbourne Storm

Date: 21/5
Time: 6:00pm
Venue: nib Stadium

History (since 1998): Played 26, Souths 2, Storm 22

Key Stats:

  • Souths have won 5 of 8 matches in Perth
  • The Storm have won 1 of 3 matches in Perth
  • The Storm won the last meeting between these sides 15-14

Betting Trends: Souths have been very popular with punters, they are already into $1.85 at the line.

Final thoughts: The face of coach Craig Bellamy said everything after the Storm gave up a massive lead to lose to the Titans last Saturday. The usually clinical side will have had a tough week at training, and with some injury relief in the forward pack won’t go close to putting in the same performance this week. Souths have a good record in their trips to Perth and do bring a win into this week. That win was against the hapless Tigers, but it will still give them some confidence against the best in the league. But they are that, the best in the league, and easily the best side in this match.

The Early Crow’s Top Tip: Storm -8 @ $1.95

Thursday NBA Preview

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers

Game 1 – 10.30am (AEST), Thursday, May 18 @ Boston

Likely Line-ups:

  • Celtics – Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson, Al Horford, Avery Bradley, Isaiah Thomas
  • Cavaliers – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, Kyrie Irving

History: The Celtics have won 124 regular-season games to the Cavaliers’ 78, while they hold an 18-16 lead in playoffs games. The Cavs won 3 of the 4 meetings earlier this season, and swept the teams’ most recent playoff series, the 2015 first round, 4-0.

Form: Boston finished top of the Eastern Conference with a 53-29 record, before downing Chicago 4-2 in the first round and beating Washington in seven games in the semis. Cleveland went 51-31 in the regular season to finish second in the East, before sweeping Indiana and Toronto to reach the ECF.

Stats: The Cavs have won 9 of their last 11 against the Celtics, including 4 of their last 5 in Boston. The teams’ last 10 playoffs meetings were decided by 8-plus points. Five of the Cavaliers’ 8 wins in these playoffs were by 7 points or less; all 8 of the Celtics’ wins in these playoffs were by 9-plus points. The Celtics went 31-10 at home in the regular season and are 5-2 in these playoffs; they have won 14 of their last 18 at TD Garden. The Cavaliers went 20-21 on the road in the regular season but are 4-0 in the playoffs; the Cavs have won 9 of their last 12 away from Cleveland.

Final Thoughts: The top-seed Celtics have done it the hard way, coming from behind against the Bulls before beating the Wizards in seven games of a tough series – with just a two-day break before this Game 1. The Cavaliers are comparatively well-rested, forced to play just eight games in almost 40 days. The Celtics do have homecourt advantage, but with that comes extra pressure to make it count – if they drop one or both of the first two games at TD Garden, they are almost certain to get swept by the Cavs. The Celtics are arguably the best defensive team left in the playoffs, but combating LeBron James will be a far bigger test than they’ve encountered so far in the post-season. As good as Isaiah Thomas has been – and the Celtics talisman’s battle with Kyrie Irving will be vital – LeBron’s presence gives the visitors a huge advantage.

Crow’s Tip: Cleveland Cavaliers 1-10 @ $2.68

TOP TIPS

Match

Crow’s Tip

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers -4 @ $2.04

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 219.5 @ $1.95

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers

1st Half Point Spread – Cavaliers -1.5 @ $1.85

Sale Preview – Wednesday

The main racing on Wednesday in Victoria will be held at the Sale track.

Sadly, the meeting may be marred by rain as it’s in the forecast for the afternoon.

Rail Position: Out 3m all way
Track Condition: soft 5

Race 1- 2YO Fillies 1105m

Date: 17/5
Time: 1:00pm
Location: Sale

WOMAN IN RED what was that old Chris de Burgh classic?….oh Lady in Red. Similar. Either way it and this horse rate highly in my opinion. BELLA VELLA was strong on debut this grade when 2nd. Fitter and with more experience, rates a show while FAITH IN HAND looks likely to get home hard late following 2 useful runs this grade thus far.

The Early Crows Top TipWOMAN IN RED

 

Race 2- Open Maiden Plate 1205m

Date: 17/5
Time: 1:30pm
Location: Sale

Weak race so ALMIGHTY MOSES finally gets a good chance. Placed twice this grade since resuming. ROYAL SHAME is resuming here but looked more than handy when last in work placing twice this grade. Watch market and drawn perfectly. PENTHOUSE POET has drawn ideally to land the best run in the race ands was a strong 3rd this company last time out. Chance.

The Early Crows Top TipROYAL SHAME

 

Race 3- BM 70 Hcp 1411m

Date: 17/5
Time: 2:00pm
Location: Sale

IT’S A SHAME BILLY has been up a while and is holding form. At best though, he’s a knockabout, tough old type who runs a useful race and can do that here. Place.  LOST COMMAND has won 2 of past 4. Drawn well, certain to be right in the fray. RECALCULATE is 3rd up now and that means he’s super fit and ready to rumble.

The Early Crows Top TipLOST COMMAND

 

Race 4- 3YO BM 64  1411m

Date: 17/5
Time: 2:30pm
Location: Sale

FORTIFY has drawn a little awkwardly here but is up to this. Did win easier race in style 2 runs back. SIMPLY SPLASHING scored first up in mdn grade then acquitted himself well when 4th first look at this company. Fitter now too. TOORAK BELLE led all way at this track last start to win mdn. This is tougher but has claims.

The Early Crows Top TipSIMPLY SPLASHING

 

Race 5- F & M BM 78 Hcp 1411m

Date: 17/5
Time: 3:00pm
Location: Sale

Perfect draw for in form DIVINE CHILLS here. Should get all the breaks and looms large. Is in great form too. SENSATION ALLY is resuming here but showed class enough last campaign to rate a strong chance in this. Being fresh may help. MAMZELLE TESS has won 3 of past 5 and when looking at this grade, ran a great 4th. Perfect draw to get gun run here.

The Early Crows Top TipDIVINE CHILLS

 

Race 6- BM 64 Hcp 2219m

Date: 17/5
Time: 3:30pm
Location: Sale

ADATTO has loads of talent when right and despite big weight, drops long way in class here. Beaten less then 2 lengths in Gr 3 class last start! Looks a stayer in the making and up to this trip should suit. OLLIE THE THIRD is rising sharply in grade following strong mdn win last start. May need a little more experience this grade but has talent. VILLARRICA almost identical can be said of this emerging star. Place.

The Early Crows Top TipADATTO

 

Race 7- BM 64 Hcp 1728m

Date: 17/5
Time: 4:00pm
Location: Sale

LORD ORE is in strong stable, and is ready now to shine following 2 useful runs this time in. Will be in firing near home. JVALA has made connections smile past few starts finishing in the money. Needs a win though and gets a big chance here today. NANGAWOOKA gets weight relief and perfect barrier but is going to need it as up in grade. Place following 2 wins on the trot.

The Early Crows Top TipLORD ORE

 

Race 8- BM 70 Hcp 1105m

Date: 17/5
Time: 4:30pm
Location: Sale

SIR SAGAMORE is ready following 2 terrific runs last campaign and a freshener. Drawn pretty well, in good stable and is proven while fresh. Market moves need to be followed. IONLYTHINKOFYOU is what I tell my wife all the time. Will be suited here with weight relief too. CANNOT BE SERIOS is what she says in response each time! Ha, this bloke is potentially best runner in field but is resuming here and has bad gate. Place this time.

The Early Crows Top TipCANNOT BE SERIOS

WEDNESDAY RACING TIP SHEET

The Early Crows Racing Top Tips – 17/5/2017

WARWICK FARM

Race

Tip

WARWICK FARM Race 1

PADRAIG

WARWICK FARM RACE 6

GAMBLER’S BLUES

WARWICK FARM Race 7

SLUMBER PARTY

SALE

Race

Tip

SALE Race 1

BELLA VELLA

SALE Race 5

SENSATION ALLY

SALE Race 8

CANNOT BE SERIOS

GOLD COAST

Race

Tip

GOLD COAST Race 1

TIZABEE

GOLD COAST Race 3

NASHVILLE SKYLINE

GOLD COAST Race 4

CRUSHER

Wednesday NBA Preview

Golden State Warriors v San Antonio Spurs

Game 2 – 11.00am (AEST), Wednesday, May 17 @ Golden State

Likely Line-ups:

  • Warriors – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry
  • Spurs – Danny Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Jonathon Simmons, Patty Mills

History: The Spurs have won 106 regular season games to the Warriors’ 57, including 2 games to 1 this season. The Warriors hold a 6-5 lead in playoffs games; the Spurs won the 2013 semi-finals 4-2 by the Warriors lead the current series 1-0.

Form: Golden State topped the Western Conference with a 67-15 record, before sweeping the Trail Blazers and Jazz 4-0 to progress to the WCF. The Spurs finished second in the West with a 61-21 record but have found the going tougher in the playoffs, taking 6 games to eliminate both the Grizzlies and Rockets. The Warriors won Game 1 of this series 113-111, with the Spurs giving up a huge lead after key player Kawhi Leonard went down injured in the third quarter.

Stats: The Spurs have won 13 of their last 21 against the Warriors, but only 1 of the last 5 at Golden State. The Spurs have lost their last 6 games when conceding more than 107 points; the Warriors have scored 109+ in 12 of their last 15 games. The Warriors have lost just 1 of their last 25 games. The Warriors went 36-5 at home in the regular season and are 5-0 in the playoffs; they have won 15 of their last 16 at Oracle Arena. The Spurs went 30-11 on the road in the regular season but are only 3-4 in the playoffs; they have won just 6 of their last 14 away from San Antonio.

Final Thoughts: However questionable Zaza Pachulia’s challenge that put Kawhi Leonard out of the series opener was, the fact of the matter is it cost the Spurs a 1-0 lead and has put their talisman out of Game 2. The Spurs coughed up a 23-point lead after Leonard exited, with Curry and Durant – who combined for 74 points – going into overdrive. The Spurs have shown they can win without Kawhi, crushing the Rockets by 40 points in the series-deciding Game 6 recently, but the Warriors are a far more lethal all-round proposition – particularly at Oracle Arena.

Crow’s Tip: Golden State Warriors -14 @ $1.98

TOP TIPS

Match

Crow’s Tip

Golden State Warriors v San Antonio Spurs

Over 208.5 @ $1.95

Golden State Warriors v San Antonio Spurs

1st Half Point Spread – Warriors -8.5 @ $1.89

Golden State Warriors v San Antonio Spurs

Line/Total Double – Warriors -14.5/Over 209.5 @3.85