Betting Update – Saturday 2nd September

A promising, short-priced stayer has caught the eye of punters early, ahead of this Saturdays racing at Randwick and Caulfield. Palmerbet CEO, Grant Palmer takes a closer look at the early action and gives his thoughts on why punters have been so quick to react.

 

Randwick

Race 1 – Benchmark 75 Handicap 1300m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Beau Geste $2.60 $2.60 None
Next Best Merovee $7.50 $7.00 $500 e/w @ $7.50

 

Grant’s Comments: Very interesting three year-olds race to kick off the card on Saturday at Randwick. The punters are happy to be with the Godolphin colt Beau Geste, who has only been seen at the races once when recording an impressive victory at Canterbury back in May. Was immediately tipped out after that and could be on the way to much bigger things in the Spring. Looks to get the right run in behind the speed for Brenton Avdulla and will take holding out. The Frankel colt Merovee has also been met with good support tightening in from $7.50 to $7.00. Broke through for this maiden victory at Beaumont last start and will only improve from that effort.

 

Race 2 – Benchmark 84 Handicap 2000m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Up ‘N’ Rolling $2.20 $2.05 $3,000 @ ‘Top Fluc’
Next Best Admiral Jello $8.00 $8.00 None

 

Grant’s Comments: One-way traffic for Up ‘N’ Rolling in the only staying event on the card. Returned with an effortless victory at Canterbury, cantering to the line to win by three lengths. The horse he beat that day in Notio came out and won on Wednesday, so there is certainly substance to the form. Rises in class but looks to have a stack of upside. Admiral Jello backs up off a decent run in the Taree Cup and has attracted a sprinkling of money.

 

Race 5 – Group 3 Concorde Stakes 1000m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Spieth $3.20 $2.50 $1,000 @ $2.70
Next Best Super Too $10.00 $10.00 None

 

Grant’s Comments: Stack of speed engaged here with Super Too, The Monstar, Nieta and Redzel all looking to take up forward positions. Spieth will be the one that camps of them and the punters think he’ll be charging over the top late, the weight of money seeing him firm from $3.20 on opening all the way into the current quote of $2.50. Has a stack of ability this horse, just missing first up in the Lightning Stakes during the Autumn, before a handful of luckless runs. Has trialed beautifully coming into this, no doubt tuned right up by Bryce Heys as he looks to secure a spot in the Everest. Looks hard to beat. Next best is Super Too who could well be the knockout. Ran them off their feet here a fortnight ago, and who’s to say she can’t do the same again with a fitness edge on some of her rivals.

 

Race 6 – Group 2 Furious Stakes 1200m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Champagne Cuddles $3.10 $3.10 None
Next Best Formality $3.50 $3.50 $3,000 @ $3.50

 

Grant’s Comments: The three that head the market here all come through the Silver Shadow a fortnight ago. Formality got the chocolates that day but Champagne Cuddles was enormous. Was forced to chase a long way from home to try and reel in the leaders off a slow tempo, only just missing to go down by 0.4 lengths. Produced the second best 200m split that day, only bettered by the mighty mare Winx! The punters think she should atone here. Formality should not be discounted. Should find the front and will be fitter here second-up. One punter is very confident the D & B Hayes-Dabernig filly will make it two from two this time in, investing $3,000 @$3.50 earlier in the week.

 

Caulfield

Race 4 – Group 3 H.D.F. McNeil Stakes 1200m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Merchant Navy $2.20 $2.70 $1,000 @ $3.20
Next Best Kobayashi $8.50 $8.50 None

 

Grant’s Comments: Merchant Navy returns to the races on Saturday and the punters certainly think he can keep his unbeaten record intact, currently a $2.70 chance in from $3.40. Went through the grades nicely in his first preparation, yet trainer Ciaron Maher believes we’re yet to see the best of this colt. A start in the Golden Rose or the Caulfield Guineas beckons and the weight of money suggests this boy will fly fresh. Has been continually backed at every call and we wouldn’t be surprised to see it start even shorter come the jump. Kobayashi resumed in a strong race behind Jukebox and has been specked.

 

Race 7 – Group 1 Memsie Stakes 2000m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Vega Magic $2.80 $2.35 $1,500 @ $2.60
Next Best Yankee Rose $10.00 $10.00 None

 

Grant’s Comments: The Memsie is the first Group 1 of the season and what a field has assembled for this year’s edition. Vega Magic headlines the betting after an ultra-impressive victory first up in the Regal Roller. Carried weight and was super strong to the line to repel the challenge of the Japanese horse Brave Smash. Has to do it at weight-for-age level now but the punters are far from deterred, backed in from an opening price of $2.80 to the current quote of $2.35. Yankee Rose resumes as a four-year-old with great interest. Her resume boasts a third placing in a Cox Plate and at her best she could certainly challenge these. A handful of punters have nibbled away at her at double figure odds.

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