Daily Sports Selections – Tuesday 5th September

 

Soccer – Australia v Thailand

10:00pm @ Flushing Meadows, New York

The Socceroos are in a tight spot following their 2-0 loss to Japan, but where there’s life there’s hope – and that spells trouble for Thailand in the World Cup qualifier in Melbourne. Australia needs to win handsomely to keep their Russia 2018 hopes alive, and given their backs-to-the-wall mentality, the home-ground advantage, and Thailand’s minnow status (they are ranked 130th in the world), look for Ange Postecoglou’s men to pile on the goals at AAMI Park.

Tip: Australia -3 @ $2.20

Tennis – Roger Federer v Philipp Kohlschreiber

9.00am (AEST) @ Flushing Meadows, New York

The ‘Fed-Express’ appears to be on a semi-final collision course with archrival Rafael Nadal at the US Open, but he has a fourth-round assignment against veteran Kohlschreiber to negotiate first. After kicking off his New York campaign with a pair of five-setters, Federer found his groove in a straight-sets win over Feliciano Lopez. The 33rd seed Kohlschreiber is yet to drop a set, although his draw has been comparably soft. Federer has an 11-0 career record against Kohlschreiber and should power into the quarters, but expect the German to fight tooth and nail.

Tip: Set Betting – Federer 3-1 @ $3.60

Soccer – Solomon Island v New Zealand

1.00pm (AEST) @ Honiara

The All Whites may have released EPL stars Chris Wood and Ryan Thomas, but the magnitude of their 6-1 first leg win over Solomon Islands suggests they will have little trouble racking up another big win in the return clash. NZ have outscored Solomon Islands 15-2 in their last four clashes, and while Honiara is a tricky venue, the gap in class between the teams is huge.

Tip: New Zealand/New Zealand @ $1.73

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Daily Racing Selections – Monday 4th September

Benalla Race 2 – Maiden Plate 1206m

Monday 4th September, 1:00PM

Former Kiwi-trained maiden COSSASTOCK has been transferred to Australia and it’s fair to say, so far, without much fanfare. Certainly, you get that impression following his first two runs here where he has been up on pace both times and weakened out of a place. But with the threat of showers today, being a Kiwi (they love it wet), and the fact he is well drawn, I think he can scoot through, take up the running and be fit enough to hang on today.

Tip: COSSASTOCK

Kempsey Race 3 – Maiden Plate 1450m

Monday 4th September, 2:05PM

It’s an exercise normally fraught with danger, but I’m tipping PENNY FLING, despite the fact she’s had 11 career starts without yet tasting victory. I’m tipping her because this might just be the weakest race she has been in. Will be 3rd up in this and two placings thus far have been achieved without a great deal of luck. Looks wonderfully placed to finally break through.

Tip: PENNY FLING

Benalla Race 6 – Benchmark 58 Handicap 2046m

Monday 4th September, 3:00PM

If form counts for anything then this bush galloper WEAVE looks about the best placed runner anywhere in Australia today. He’s a legitimate BM 70 horse and is in this 3rd up after a beacon-flashing run last start for 2nd in a stronger grade. Will settled mid field and with the weight relief for in form apprentice Chris Caserta, he just looks to finish way too strongly for these.

Tip: WEAVE

Daily Sports Selections – Monday 4th September

 

Tennis – Pablo Carreno Busta v Denis Shapovalov

10:00pm @ Flushing Meadows, New York

Canadian qualifier Shapovalov has enjoyed a spectacular run through the US Open so far, most notably with a straight-sets boilover against eighth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the second round. But the world No.69’s fairytale charge is set to come to an end when he meets 12th seed Carreno Busta in this fourth-round showdown. The Spaniard beat up on qualifiers throughout the first week in New York and shouldn’t have much trouble wrapping up another straight-sets win to grab the second grand slam quarter-final berth of his career.

Tip: Pablo Carreno Busta 3-0

Tennis – Anastasija Sevastova v Maria Sharapova

11.00am (AEST) @ Flushing Meadows, New York

Controversial wildcard Sharapova’s comeback grand slam performance – starting with a first-round upset of Simona Halep – has been one of the big talking points of the US Open, but fatigue is surely setting in for the Russian, who is competing at her first major since the 2016 Australian Open and was again taken the distance by Timea Babos in the second round. Her fourth-round opponent, Sevastova, is an underrated 16th seed and reached the quarters in New York last year. The gutsy Austrian looks the goods to end Sharapova’s streak.

Tip: Anastasija Sevastova to win

MLB – Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers

1.00am (AEST) @ Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

The 59-79 Reds sit at the bottom of the National League Central and have a modest 34-36 home record, but they’ve shown promise in Cincinnati recently against the likes of the Mets, Pirates and Cubs. The 72-66 Brewers are second in the NL Central but they’ve lost four of their last seven on the road, and the home underdogs shapes as good value in this encounter.

Tip: Cincinnati Reds to win @ $2.05

Daily Racing Selections – Friday 1st September

Bendigo Race 1 – Maiden Plate 1100m

Friday 1st September, 12:25PM

This should be a smart colt but he’s yet to win in two starts. Was sent out at $1.50 favourite last start and after charging to the lead from the get go, wilted final 100 metres. Looks likely to benefit from a sit so if he finds cover, and he is drawn in 3 so should get it, he might be ready to unleash.

Tip: DOUBLE JEOPARDY

This Tulloch Lodge prepared filly MYSTIC EMPIRE might be very handy. Yet to really show up but what she has shown is that she is very fast. That will help her find the front early here. And with the bone and muscle put into her through this type of training regime, she will stay there and lead all way this time.

Tip: MYSTIC EMPIRE

Goulburn Race 5 – Benchmark 57 Handicap 1000m

Wednesday 30th August, 3:45PM

HARVEST DREAM showed a great deal of courage on debut at Moruya over 900m to come from off the pace and crunch what has proven to be a strong maiden. Tossed into the deep end next start over 1200m at Class 2 level and was only a length or so from winner. Fitter now, has a touch of talent, and this race appeals.

Tip: HARVEST DREAM

Betting Update – Saturday 2nd September

A promising, short-priced stayer has caught the eye of punters early, ahead of this Saturdays racing at Randwick and Caulfield. Palmerbet CEO, Grant Palmer takes a closer look at the early action and gives his thoughts on why punters have been so quick to react.

 

Randwick

Race 1 – Benchmark 75 Handicap 1300m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Beau Geste $2.60 $2.60 None
Next Best Merovee $7.50 $7.00 $500 e/w @ $7.50

 

Grant’s Comments: Very interesting three year-olds race to kick off the card on Saturday at Randwick. The punters are happy to be with the Godolphin colt Beau Geste, who has only been seen at the races once when recording an impressive victory at Canterbury back in May. Was immediately tipped out after that and could be on the way to much bigger things in the Spring. Looks to get the right run in behind the speed for Brenton Avdulla and will take holding out. The Frankel colt Merovee has also been met with good support tightening in from $7.50 to $7.00. Broke through for this maiden victory at Beaumont last start and will only improve from that effort.

 

Race 2 – Benchmark 84 Handicap 2000m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Up ‘N’ Rolling $2.20 $2.05 $3,000 @ ‘Top Fluc’
Next Best Admiral Jello $8.00 $8.00 None

 

Grant’s Comments: One-way traffic for Up ‘N’ Rolling in the only staying event on the card. Returned with an effortless victory at Canterbury, cantering to the line to win by three lengths. The horse he beat that day in Notio came out and won on Wednesday, so there is certainly substance to the form. Rises in class but looks to have a stack of upside. Admiral Jello backs up off a decent run in the Taree Cup and has attracted a sprinkling of money.

 

Race 5 – Group 3 Concorde Stakes 1000m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Spieth $3.20 $2.50 $1,000 @ $2.70
Next Best Super Too $10.00 $10.00 None

 

Grant’s Comments: Stack of speed engaged here with Super Too, The Monstar, Nieta and Redzel all looking to take up forward positions. Spieth will be the one that camps of them and the punters think he’ll be charging over the top late, the weight of money seeing him firm from $3.20 on opening all the way into the current quote of $2.50. Has a stack of ability this horse, just missing first up in the Lightning Stakes during the Autumn, before a handful of luckless runs. Has trialed beautifully coming into this, no doubt tuned right up by Bryce Heys as he looks to secure a spot in the Everest. Looks hard to beat. Next best is Super Too who could well be the knockout. Ran them off their feet here a fortnight ago, and who’s to say she can’t do the same again with a fitness edge on some of her rivals.

 

Race 6 – Group 2 Furious Stakes 1200m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Champagne Cuddles $3.10 $3.10 None
Next Best Formality $3.50 $3.50 $3,000 @ $3.50

 

Grant’s Comments: The three that head the market here all come through the Silver Shadow a fortnight ago. Formality got the chocolates that day but Champagne Cuddles was enormous. Was forced to chase a long way from home to try and reel in the leaders off a slow tempo, only just missing to go down by 0.4 lengths. Produced the second best 200m split that day, only bettered by the mighty mare Winx! The punters think she should atone here. Formality should not be discounted. Should find the front and will be fitter here second-up. One punter is very confident the D & B Hayes-Dabernig filly will make it two from two this time in, investing $3,000 @$3.50 earlier in the week.

 

Caulfield

Race 4 – Group 3 H.D.F. McNeil Stakes 1200m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Merchant Navy $2.20 $2.70 $1,000 @ $3.20
Next Best Kobayashi $8.50 $8.50 None

 

Grant’s Comments: Merchant Navy returns to the races on Saturday and the punters certainly think he can keep his unbeaten record intact, currently a $2.70 chance in from $3.40. Went through the grades nicely in his first preparation, yet trainer Ciaron Maher believes we’re yet to see the best of this colt. A start in the Golden Rose or the Caulfield Guineas beckons and the weight of money suggests this boy will fly fresh. Has been continually backed at every call and we wouldn’t be surprised to see it start even shorter come the jump. Kobayashi resumed in a strong race behind Jukebox and has been specked.

 

Race 7 – Group 1 Memsie Stakes 2000m

 Runner  Open  Current Notable Bets
Favourite Vega Magic $2.80 $2.35 $1,500 @ $2.60
Next Best Yankee Rose $10.00 $10.00 None

 

Grant’s Comments: The Memsie is the first Group 1 of the season and what a field has assembled for this year’s edition. Vega Magic headlines the betting after an ultra-impressive victory first up in the Regal Roller. Carried weight and was super strong to the line to repel the challenge of the Japanese horse Brave Smash. Has to do it at weight-for-age level now but the punters are far from deterred, backed in from an opening price of $2.80 to the current quote of $2.35. Yankee Rose resumes as a four-year-old with great interest. Her resume boasts a third placing in a Cox Plate and at her best she could certainly challenge these. A handful of punters have nibbled away at her at double figure odds.

Daily Racing Selections – Thursday 31st August

Under Class 3 conditions last start, STYLISH CRIMINAL had to carry a big weight compared to others and he did it tough but still won. DANTIEN was 3rd that day and is meeting him 2kg worse off for a thumping. Combine that with STYLISH CRIMINAL’s superb recent form and he looks the one to hold out. Will get back to about 4th early and stay close enough to launch late.

Tip: STYLISH CRIMINAL

Two things jump out when looking at this race. Firstly, PETRACCA is a model of consistency in this BM 64 grade. He’ s placed twice at this level from two runs this time up. Secondly, the 1600m should suit him even more than recent short course efforts. He’s weighted to win and is drawn well enough – and being 3rd up, just looks the play.

Tip: PETRACCA

There’s no substitute for speed in these short course races and this mare, PATRIKA BELLE, has a ton of it. She’s only had the one run and she showed that dash by spearing to the front and leading all way in her maiden victory. This is harder, but she has 1kg less here and her racing style puts her into the race for a long way – for the entire way, I think. She jumps from a fair enough gate here and should give you a good sight.

Tip: PATRIKA BELLE

Canterbury Preview – Wednesday 30th August

FAEGER appears to be a quality young horse just needing a bit of luck and a confidence boost. And this might be the race he finds it in. Has run placings this grade on three occasions so knows the pressure. Super fit now, as he’s third up. HIGH DIVE is resuming here but placed twice when last in work in this company. Has Hugh Bowman to steer today and trials have been super. Big show. LIGHTZ will probably be good each way odds. And you should look into that. He hasn’t run in a race this weak before so expect good improvement. Can test these here.

Tip:LIGHTZ

Race 2 – Maiden Handicap (3YO Fillies) 1100m

Wednesday 30th August, 2:00pm

FIFTH AFFAIR has talent. This may be a tad short as she likes to get back, steady, then charge home. Saying that, she is resuming here so may be better fresh. Place show. CADENCIA has been hitting line strongly in a few trials of late. Little brother of star sprinter Derryn. Engagement of Bowman is a telling factor. Watch market. MARISHKA led all way to win recent trial quite comfortably and impressively. Will no doubt attempt to do same here on debut.

Tip:CADENCIA

Race 3 – Benchmark 75 Handicap 2700m

Wednesday 30th August, 2:35pm

After four starts this campaign, top weight FOUR CARAT looks primed to run a blinder. Made good ground late to grab 4th in a BM 84 last start, where first 3 home would win this by a street. Looks the main play. NAPOLEAN is a very fit out and out plodder. Has no set racing pattern. Last start in slightly easier race, sat back last for most of way, then made bold mid race bid to reach lead and swung for home clear, hanging tough to win. That was 2900m, so this trip no worry. RED DREAM is only average but he’s racing well in his grade placing past two. This is slightly harder but he has no weight and is very fit. Will be steaming home.

Tip:FOUR CARAT

Race 4 – Benchmark 73 Handicap 1900m

Wednesday 30th August, 3:10pm

ESTIKHRAAJ – just what do you make of this bloke? He goes around in everything. And on occasion, he steams into the race and runs away looking really smart. Winless his past three starts but with Bowman aboard, anything is possible. TAIKOMOCHI will roll to the lead and despite a lack of experience, he will take catching. He has that Tulloch Lodge shine upon him too, which helps defy the class rise. LEUCURA is in very well here if he runs up to his best. Will sit back midfield off what looks to be a strong tempo. He’s a bush star who is weighted very well here

Tip:LEUCURA

Race 5 – Benchmark 74 Handicap 1550m

Wednesday 30th August, 3:45pm

FORTENSKY has been heavily backed his past four starts since winning impressively when resuming. Beaten in all four of those runs but does enough to get you back in and rightly so in this grade. NO PUSHOVER should be just that in this grade. Gets in well at the weights following two wins and a placing from his past three. NOTIO has placed four times in his last five. Up a little in grade but is getting better and is down in weight.

Tip:FORTENSKY

PURE REBEL is fast and fit, and in terrific form. Weight relief here for inform apprentice Rachel King is also a big help. Can cruise to the front from the good gate. BRAVISSIMO is the one to watch out for. Has been screaming for a dry track and gets it here. Is resuming but two trials of late have been most impressive. MALAHAT ran well when resuming last start for 3rd this grade. Has Hughie to steer and is in perfect gate.

Tip:BRAVISSIMO

Race 7 – Benchmark 76 Handicap 1200m

Wednesday 30th August, 4:55pm

MISSILE CODA is up to the big weight but judging by how fast he jumped and ran and the quality he beat last start, he deserves it. And I don’t think the handicapper has caught him yet either. Looks big chance. ALLITERATE is all quality when she is right but hasn’t won for a while. Or shown anything either. Can’t leave out though because she has history that is better than these. REGIMEN up in class here but is unbeaten in two runs and drawn the perfect alley here. Will be about midfield and looks a main player.

Tip:MISSILE CODA